Opinion: The three reasons American elections are always so close
The Washington Post November 4, 2022
Lauren Strayer
media@voterstudygroup.org
(202) 420-7928
Fraser MacPherson
media@voterstudygroup.org
(206) 770-7094
One of the largest 2020 public opinion surveys offers unprecedented insight into a rapidly changing American political, social, and economic landscape.
Washington, D.C. — June 8, 2020
It is more critical than ever that the diverse views and voices of all Americans are heard. In an effort to better understand opinions across the country on the most important policy issues, Democracy Fund and UCLA are launching “Nationscape Insights” in partnership with USA TODAY. The interactive data dashboard will be updated weekly with findings from the 500,000 interviews conducted by the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project leading up to the 2020 election. The dashboard builds on the group’s successful collaboration covering issues including the presidential primaries, COVID-19, the economic crisis, and recent protests across the country. The survey is fielded by Lucid.
Nationscape Insights offers immediate, in-depth access to the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, one of the largest public opinion surveys ever conducted. Updated weekly with new data, the dashboard allows users to view public opinion on a range of policy issues across different geographies and demographic groups, as well as over time. The survey covers over 40 policy issues including the economy, immigration, guns, abortion, and climate change.
A key feature of the Nationscape project is its massive sample size, which allows researchers to measure and better understand attitudes among demographic groups that are not well-represented in most national polls. As the United States grapples with how to respond to multiple major crises, it is more important than ever to be able to understand the views of all Americans.
For example, Nationscape Insights can provide a closer look at the concerns of young (18–29-year-old) Black Americans on key issues heading into the 2020 election:
“The Nationscape project is an unprecedented undertaking to help improve our understanding of the issues most important to voters across the country. Not just voters in battleground states or from those groups that are already well represented in the electorate — we want to hear from and better understand the policy views of all Americans,” said Alicia Kolar Prevost, director of Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group. “Nationscape Insights with USA TODAY creates a window into the data that will allow every researcher, reporter, and armchair pundit to do their own analysis of this important moment in our nation’s history.”
“‘Nationscape Insights also provides analyses and interactive voter data to USA TODAY and Gannett journalists across the country, helping drive informed, incisive journalism in local communities. Never has understanding the diverse perspectives of other Americans been more important to our democracy,” said Mizell Stewart III, Senior Director of News Partnerships at USA TODAY. “We hope citizens use ‘Nationscape Insights’ as a non-partisan, data-driven resource to increase their understanding of key issues leading up to the 2020 election.”
"A good survey is like a good conversation — it’s about listening to people — and we’ve heard from hundreds of thousands of people since last July,” said Lynn Vavreck, political scientist at UCLA. “The data tell us stories about things Americans disagree on but also about points of agreement. As people use this new visualization to interact with our data, we think they will start to see large areas of agreement — on things like universal background checks for gun purchases or providing paid maternity leave — which may help enact legislation that has broad benefits to all Americans."
NATIONSCAPE METHODOLOGY & TEAM
The Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape survey is conducted online and will interview approximately 6,250 Americans each week over the 80 weeks leading up to the 2020 election and the weeks following the election. The survey is fielded by Lucid, a programmatic market research platform providing access to data that the Nationscape team uses to produce and study weekly, representative samples of the population. The study is led by UCLA political scientists Chris Tausanovitch and Lynn Vavreck. The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group is led by Director Alicia Kolar Prevost, Research Director Robert Griffin, Senior Research Advisor John Sides, and Democracy Fund’s Lauren Strayer.
About Democracy Fund Voter Study Group
The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group is a research collaboration of more than two dozen analysts and scholars from across the political spectrum. Created in the wake of the 2016 election, the Voter Study Group’s goal is to better understand the American electorate by examining and delivering insights on the evolving views of American voters. Research and analysis from Voter Study Group members can be found at www.voterstudygroup.org and on Twitter @democracyfund.
About UCLA
Consistently ranked as one of the world’s top public universities, UCLA is dedicated to research that improves our world, service that benefits our local and global communities, and teaching that offers a world-class education to exceptional students from all backgrounds, including the one-third of UCLA students who go on to become first-generation college graduates. Political scientists Chris Tausanovitch (@ctausanovitch) and Lynn Vavreck (@vavreck) are the Nationscape project leads at UCLA.
About USA TODAY
Founded in 1982, USA TODAY reflects the pulse of the nation, serving as host of the American conversation by delivering high-quality, engaging content through unique visual storytelling across all platforms. A media innovator, USA TODAY reaches more than 90M unique visitors each month across digital platforms with more than 25 million downloads of our award-winning app. USA TODAY is owned by Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE: GCI).
About Lucid
Lucid is a programmatic market research platform that provides access to authentic, first-party data in over 100 countries. Its products and services enable anyone, in any industry, to ask questions of targeted audiences and find the answers they need — fast. These human answers can be used to uncover consumer motivations, increase revenue, and measure the impact of digital advertising. Founded in 2010, Lucid is headquartered in New Orleans, Louisiana, with offices throughout the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Australia. Learn more about Lucid at www.luc.id or follow them on Twitter at @lucid_hq.
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